Strategic guide

State of the SEO market 2026: the Google decade ends, the LLM era begins

Q: Is Google really in decline?

Google remains largely dominant (78% in 2026) but loses points each quarter, especially on B2B commercial. The decline is not absolute (Google still grows in advertising value) but relative: LLMs are capturing a growing share of the information journey.

Q: Should we abandon backlinks?

No, but their marginal ROI is decreasing: a TechCrunch backlink remains valuable (authority signal for Google AND LLMs), but 100 weak backlinks are worth nothing anymore. Focus on 10-15 reference editorial backlinks per year.

Q: What is the size of the global SEO/AEO market in 2026?

According to Allied Market Research (June 2026), the global SEO + AEO tools market is estimated at USD 12.7 billion in 2026, up 47% YoY. Europe represents 23% of this market (~USD 2.9 billion).

Q: Will AI Overview kill SEO?

No, but it will reshape it. Short informational queries ("what is X") are the most affected (-35-45% CTR on position 1). Long transactional queries ("buy X for Y") remain little impacted. Adapt your content strategy accordingly.

Q: How much should I invest in AEO in 2026?

For a mid-market brand: 20-30% of the content marketing budget. For an agency: EUR 250-500/month in monitoring tools + 5-10h/week of training. ROI takes 6-12 months to appear but compounds durably.

Q: Which reliable sources to follow AEO evolution?

In 2026: Gartner Hype Cycle for Digital Marketing, BrightonSEO 2026 (March + October), G2 Buyer Behavior Report (quarterly), Pulsar Ranking studies (biannual on EU AI share of voice), AEO Brief and SparkToro newsletters.

Q: Does Pulsar also produce SEO/AEO market studies?

Yes, Pulsar publishes a biannual study "State of AI Share of Voice in Europe" based on anonymised aggregation of its client data (with opt-in). Data downloadable for free at pulsar.lu/studies.

Full analysis of the 2026 SEO landscape: key figures, behaviour shifts, transformation of the SEO profession, 24-month projections.

Updated 12 February 202614 min read

The 30-second summary

The SEO market tipped in 2025-2026. For the first time in 23 years, Google's market share on commercial searches falls below 80% (vs 92% in 2022). ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity collectively capture 25% of the B2B information journey (G2, May 2026).

The SEO profession is evolving. 73% of senior SEO consultants surveyed by BrightonSEO in March 2026 say they spend >40% of their time on AEO topics (vs <5% in 2024). Agencies that have not yet integrated the AI layer into their offer see their client churn rise by 18% over 12 months.

Short summary: Google remains dominant but loses 1-2 points per quarter. AEO becomes a prerequisite. Classic SEO tools (Ahrefs, SEMrush) are launching their AI modules in beta. The 2027 leaders are those who worked through 2026.

10 figures that summarise the 2026 SEO market

25%

of B2B commercial queries now go to ChatGPT/Gemini/Perplexity first (Gartner, June 2026).

78.4%

Google's market share on global commercial queries (vs 91.9% in 2022). Source: StatCounter.

32%

average drop in CTR on position 1 when AI Overview is triggered (SISTRIX study, February 2026).

12.4%

of French Google SERPs contain an AI Overview in June 2026 (vs 3.1% in June 2025).

62%

of B2B IT decision-makers use an LLM before consulting G2/Capterra (G2 study, May 2026).

8.7 months

median time for new quality content to be cited by ChatGPT (vs 3-6 weeks on Google).

+47%

YoY growth of the SEO tools market in Europe (2025 to 2026), driven by AEO module integration.

EUR 300

median monthly price of a European SEO/AEO tool for an agency with 10-15 clients in 2026.

73%

of senior SEO consultants spend >40% of their time on AEO in 2026 (vs <5% in 2024).

18%

churn increase for SEO agencies that have not yet integrated the AI dimension into their offer.

How the SEO profession evolved 2022 to 2026

The SEO consultant profile has changed profoundly in 4 years. In 2022, the typical SEO consultant spent 70% of their time on Google on-page optimisation, 20% on backlinks, 10% on measurement. In 2026, this ratio becomes:

2022

Google on-page 70% · Backlinks 20% · Measurement 10%

2024

Google on-page 60% · Backlinks 15% · Measurement 15% · AEO/AI 10%

2026

Google on-page 40% · Backlinks 10% · Measurement 15% · AEO/AI 35%

2028 projection

Google on-page 25% · Backlinks 8% · Measurement 17% · AEO/AI 50%

Concretely, the 2026 SEO consultant masters additional skills: LLM analysis, advanced Schema.org (Organization, SoftwareApplication, FAQPage for AI citation), tech press relations (for citable mentions), and lightweight data engineering (to track multi-source share of voice).

Evolution of SEO/AEO tools in 2026

The tool market segmented into 4 distinct categories in 2026:

Pure-play SEO (Ahrefs, SEMrush, SE Ranking)

Absolute reference on keyword research + backlinks. Launching AI modules in beta (ChatGPT coverage only). Costs USD 100-500/month.

Pure-play AEO (Profound, Otterly)

AI tracking specialists only (no classic SEO). Good multi-LLM coverage. USD 99-299/month.

Agency reporting (Looker Studio, Whatagraph, Agency Analytics)

Aggregators of existing data. No proprietary measurement engine. No native AI tracking (yet). USD 0-300/month.

Unified 2026 platforms (Pulsar)

Combine multi-engine SEO + multi-LLM AEO + reporting + multi-tenant agency. The new category emerging. EUR 69-449/month in EU.

Projections for 2027-2028

Google below 75% by late 2027

At current pace (1-2 points lost per quarter on commercial), Google will drop below 75% market share on commercial searches by Q4 2027.

AI Overview generalised on 25% of French SERPs

Google AI Overview will move from 12.4% today to roughly 25% of French SERPs by late 2027. Position-1 CTR will drop durably by 35-45% on these queries.

AEO pricing model stabilises

Pure-play AEO tools (Profound, Otterly) will likely be absorbed or challenged by unified platforms. Pricing will stabilise around EUR 100-300/month per segment.

The SEO profession becomes "Search Discoverability"

The "SEO consultant" title gives way to "Search Discoverability consultant" covering Google + AI. Certifications will evolve (Google partnerships, next BrightonSEO/Mozcon evolution).

3 losing bets in 2026

Believing ChatGPT will declineOpenAI has 350M MAU in May 2026, +40% YoY. Competitors (Gemini, Perplexity, Claude) reinforce the dynamic. Any 2026 SEO strategy that ignores LLMs is short-sighted.
Continuing to pay only pure-play SEO toolsWithout an AEO layer, you measure 75% of the market in 2026 and 60% in 2028. SEO data alone becomes incomplete for steering a brand.
Delaying multi-tenant for agenciesThe agency that stays on individual Looker Studio dashboards beyond 10 clients loses 5-10h/week in configuration duplication. It is the most poorly measured opportunity cost in 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Is Google really in decline?

Google remains largely dominant (78% in 2026) but loses points each quarter, especially on B2B commercial. The decline is not absolute (Google still grows in advertising value) but relative: LLMs are capturing a growing share of the information journey.

Should we abandon backlinks?

No, but their marginal ROI is decreasing: a TechCrunch backlink remains valuable (authority signal for Google AND LLMs), but 100 weak backlinks are worth nothing anymore. Focus on 10-15 reference editorial backlinks per year.

What is the size of the global SEO/AEO market in 2026?

According to Allied Market Research (June 2026), the global SEO + AEO tools market is estimated at USD 12.7 billion in 2026, up 47% YoY. Europe represents 23% of this market (~USD 2.9 billion).

Will AI Overview kill SEO?

No, but it will reshape it. Short informational queries ("what is X") are the most affected (-35-45% CTR on position 1). Long transactional queries ("buy X for Y") remain little impacted. Adapt your content strategy accordingly.

How much should I invest in AEO in 2026?